Peter Schiff on the fake jobs beat, Trump’s trade ultimatum, yields at 2007 highs, a 162% tariff bill, and why the Fed is the last buyer.
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The government says 162,000 jobs is a boom. Peter Schiff says it’s a miss, and the bond market agrees.
The August jobs report came in at 162,000 against a 55,000 consensus, and Peter Schiff walks through why the number is worse than it looks. The birth-death model supplied 74,000 of those jobs, 45% of the total, on the assumption that new businesses were hiring. More than a third of the rest were waiters and bartenders. JOLTS and ADP both pointed the other way, last month was revised down, and real wages are falling. Kevin Hassett called it a boom; by most measures the economy is weaker than the day Trump took over.
Then Trump raised the stakes. He declared that America deserves the lowest interest rates in the world, then threatened to terminate all trade with any surplus country if the Fed doesn’t cut. Peter’s answer: the United States has never been a worse credit risk than it is right now. The 10-year hit 4.81% and the 30-year 5.28%, the highest since 2007. Japan has sold its Treasury holdings down from $1.3 trillion to $1.1 trillion, everyone who was buying is now selling, and the Fed will end up the buyer of last resort, which means inflation.
Peter also covers the week’s real data: the July trade deficit at $88.6 billion, the biggest since March 2025; the $283 part that cost him 162% of the tariff once FedEx added its fee; diesel at a record above $5.80; Lutnick on semiconductors and Bastiat’s candlemakers; Waller’s rate comments sending gold back above $4,400; and an update on TGold’s coming gold debit and credit cards.
Chapters:
00:00 No Buyers Left
00:29 Back In Puerto Rico
00:47 Jobs Report Miss
05:36 Real Wages Falling
06:09 Waiters And Bartenders
08:00 JOLTS ADP Contradiction
09:10 Birth Death Model
10:23 Hassett Boom Claim
13:27 Trump Rate Demands
15:20 Worst Credit Risk Ever
17:24 Trump Trade Ultimatum
24:07 Bessent Kudlow Interview
27:27 Yields Hit 2007 Highs
28:24 Yen And Japan Selling
31:14 Oil Diesel Record
33:15 Stocks Gold Silver
39:16 Trade Deficit Widens
42:02 My 162% Tariff Bill
45:37 Lutnick Semiconductors
48:33 Bastiat Candlemakers
51:08 Waller Rate Comments
53:39 Gold Pullback Gift
54:03 TGold Cards Update
1:00:24 Bitcoin And EuroPac
1:02:12 Labor Day Sign Off
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